The Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors has released their 2009 Housing Market Analysis entitled the 2009 Residential Real Estate Activity Report. This report shows real estate market data for the entire 13 county Twin Cities market but also breaks out data for each individual city which allows us to view what’s going on in each market area of Dakota County.
Overall Statistics
Before looking specifically at Dakota County there were some overall statistics for the entire metro area that really stand out that impacted the Twin Cities residential real estate market in 2009 -
This first chart shows the Price Per Square Foot of finished space over the past 6 years. This is considered a better indicator of market value of an individual home than Median Value. As you can see, the Average Price Per Square Foot peaked in 2005-2006 and has declined almost 30% since that peak. Ouch…
These statistics do vary a lot by city. For example, places like Rosemount ($115/sqft) & Eagan ($113/sqft) are faring better than Farmington & South St. Paul (each $101/sqft). I’d be happy to get you the data for your city but this is a very good, quick way to estimate market value of your home.
Everyone knows that there are lots of Lender Mediated sales (bank-owned and short sale properties) in the market but the fact that 43% of all sales in 2009 were Lender-Mediated should surprise people. Most projections show that there are record numbers of people in default right now, fueled by the bad economy, and Lender Mediated homes on the market may actually increase through 2011
The good news right now is that the market supply of Lender Mediated homes is down and when combined with the Homeowner Tax Credit and 5% interest rates we may see a decent window for Traditional Homeowners to sell before the Credit ends in April.
Dakota County Data
The following 2 tables are a little hard to read but you should be able to click on them to get a larger version.
This first chart shows each city within Dakota County and breaks out Total Sales, how many of them were Lender Mediated, New Construction and Single Family vs. Townhouse/Condo. The big thing to look at is the Percent of Lender Mediated homes. A higher number here directly impacts Price Per Square Foot and other metrics.
The 2nd chart shows a breakdown of Average Price, Days on Market, % of List Price Received and most importantly, Price Per Square Foot. As you can see, Mendota Heights was the clear winner in 2009 as only 19% of the homes sold were Lender Mediated leading to a Price Per Square Foot that was much higher than the others. Rosemount and Lakeville rounded out the Top 3.
Conclusion
The real estate market in Dakota County is down around 30% from its peak in 2006 and a lot of the slide can be attributed to the huge increase in Lender Mediated properties. On average, your home is probably worth less than you paid for it unless you bought it before 2002-03. Understanding what’s happening by using Market Analysis Data is a primary service your Realtor can help you with to help you make decisions.
For information on any of the data used and/or individual questions about the Dakota County real estate market please contact me anytime.